Description

This analysis provides a forecast of FORTH prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-11-23 1.753905 1.828195 1.906083 1.994226 2.091703 2.196797 2.319487
2025-11-30 1.674189 1.771920 1.877955 2.002653 2.146796 2.310160 2.512331
2025-12-07 1.584203 1.692443 1.812417 1.957041 2.129235 2.331304 2.592317
2025-12-14 1.530356 1.648122 1.781101 1.944977 2.145448 2.388589 2.716234
2025-12-21 1.481084 1.605217 1.747476 1.925955 2.149276 2.427908 2.817850
2025-12-28 1.458840 1.591933 1.746929 1.945277 2.199876 2.528192 3.009261
2026-01-04 1.444506 1.586661 1.754805 1.974237 2.263284 2.649140 3.243757
2026-01-11 1.415604 1.562156 1.737439 1.969465 2.281033 2.708095 3.393250
2026-01-18 1.393374 1.544615 1.727494 1.973031 2.309237 2.782936 3.576828
2026-01-25 1.356291 1.507323 1.691073 1.939773 2.284162 2.777314 3.626058
2026-02-01 1.331449 1.484358 1.671812 1.928098 2.288083 2.814454 3.752901
2026-02-08 1.309740 1.464536 1.655696 1.919616 2.295554 2.856889 3.894972
2026-02-15 1.287370 1.443881 1.638597 1.910131 2.302577 2.901707 4.055108
2026-02-22 1.274201 1.434335 1.635356 1.919143 2.336787 2.992673 4.324760
2026-03-01 1.241771 1.399266 1.597479 1.878280 2.293690 2.951498 4.309318
2026-03-08 1.223030 1.381314 1.581653 1.867709 2.295924 2.987038 4.469144
2026-03-15 1.202716 1.360806 1.561793 1.850560 2.286921 3.002118 4.585669
2026-03-22 1.196849 1.358807 1.566477 1.868446 2.333255 3.118944 4.979138
2026-03-29 1.194498 1.361230 1.577041 1.895075 2.394980 3.271106 5.527910
2026-04-05 1.181125 1.348774 1.566906 1.890775 2.405950 3.328087 5.831394
2026-04-12 1.171054 1.340421 1.562099 1.894080 2.429528 3.412294 6.262174
2026-04-19 1.149687 1.316623 1.535398 1.863636 2.394640 3.374631 6.259590
2026-04-26 1.135901 1.302689 1.522063 1.852942 2.392852 3.405331 6.522958